Inferring Viral Transmission Pathways from Within-Host Variation.

Genome sequencing can offer critical insight into pathogen spread in viral outbreaks, but existing transmission inference methods use simplistic evolutionary models and only incorporate a portion of available genetic data. Here, we develop a robust evolutionary model for transmission reconstruction that tracks the genetic composition of within-host viral populations over time and the lineages transmitted between hosts. We confirm that our model reliably describes within-host variant frequencies in a dataset of 134,682 SARS-CoV-2 deep-sequenced genomes from Massachusetts, USA. We then demonstrate that our reconstruction approach infers transmissions more accurately than two leading methods on synthetic data, as well as in a controlled outbreak of bovine respiratory syncytial virus and an epidemiologically-investigated SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in South Africa. Finally, we apply our transmission reconstruction tool to 5,692 outbreaks among the 134,682 Massachusetts genomes. Our methods and results demonstrate the utility of within-host variation for transmission inference of SARS-CoV-2 and other pathogens, and provide an adaptable mathematical framework for tracking within-host evolution.

Barriers and facilitators to opioid agonist therapy in rural and remote communities in Canada: an integrative review.

BACKGROUND: People living in rural and remote communities in Canada are often disproportionately impacted by opioid use disorder. When compared to urban centres, rural and remote populations face additional barriers to treatment, including geographical distance as well as chronic shortages of health care professionals. This integrative review of the literature was conducted to explore the facilitators and barriers of OAT in rural and remote Canadian communities. METHODS: A search of the literature identified relevant studies published between 2001 and 2021. RESULTS: The search strategy yielded 26 scholarly peer-reviewed publications, which explored specific barriers and facilitators to rural and remote OAT in Canada, along with two reports and one fact sheet from the grey literature. Most of the scholarly articles were descriptive studies (n = 14) or commentaries (n = 9); there were only three intervention studies. Facilitators and barriers to OAT programs were organized into six themes: intrapersonal/patient factors, social/non-medical program factors, family/social context factors (including community factors), infrastructure/environmental factors, health care provider factors, and system/policy factors. CONCLUSIONS: Although themes in the literature resembled the social-ecological framework, most of the studies focused on the patient-provider dyad. Two of the most compelling studies focused on community factors that positively impacted OAT success and highlighted a holistic approach to care, nested in a community-based holistic model. Further research is required to foster OAT programs in rural and remote communities.

The case for altruism in institutional diagnostic testing.

Amid COVID-19, many institutions deployed vast resources to test their members regularly for safe reopening. This self-focused approach, however, not only overlooks surrounding communities but also remains blind to community transmission that could breach the institution. To test the relative merits of a more altruistic strategy, we built an epidemiological model that assesses the differential impact on case counts when institutions instead allocate a proportion of their tests to members' close contacts in the larger community. We found that testing outside the institution benefits the institution in all plausible circumstances, with the optimal proportion of tests to use externally landing at 45% under baseline model parameters. Our results were robust to local prevalence, secondary attack rate, testing capacity, and contact reporting level, yielding a range of optimal community testing proportions from 18 to 58%. The model performed best under the assumption that community contacts are known to the institution; however, it still demonstrated a significant benefit even without complete knowledge of the contact network.

The Origins and Future of Sentinel: An Early-Warning System for Pandemic Preemption and Response.

While investigating a signal of adaptive evolution in humans at the gene LARGE, we encountered an intriguing finding by Dr. Stefan Kunz that the gene plays a critical role in Lassa virus binding and entry. This led us to pursue field work to test our hypothesis that natural selection acting on LARGE-detected in the Yoruba population of Nigeria-conferred resistance to Lassa Fever in some West African populations. As we delved further, we conjectured that the "emerging" nature of recently discovered diseases like Lassa fever is related to a newfound capacity for detection, rather than a novel viral presence, and that humans have in fact been exposed to the viruses that cause such diseases for much longer than previously suspected. Dr. Stefan Kunz's critical efforts not only laid the groundwork for this discovery, but also inspired and catalyzed a series of events that birthed Sentinel, an ambitious and large-scale pandemic prevention effort in West Africa. Sentinel aims to detect and characterize deadly pathogens before they spread across the globe, through implementation of its three fundamental pillars: Detect, Connect, and Empower. More specifically, Sentinel is designed to detect known and novel infections rapidly, connect and share information in real time to identify emerging threats, and empower the public health community to improve pandemic preparedness and response anywhere in the world. We are proud to dedicate this work to Stefan Kunz, and eagerly invite new collaborators, experts, and others to join us in our efforts.

Preventing Outbreaks through Interactive, Experiential Real-Life Simulations.

Operation Outbreak (OO) is a Bluetooth-based simulation platform that teaches students how pathogens spread and the impact of interventions, thereby facilitating the safe reopening of schools. OO also generates data to inform epidemiological models and prevent future outbreaks. Before SARS-CoV-2 was reported, we repeatedly simulated a virus with similar features, correctly predicting many human behaviors later observed during the pandemic.

Clinical and laboratory predictors of Lassa fever outcome in a dedicated treatment facility in Nigeria: a retrospective, observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic disease endemic to west Africa. No large-scale studies exist from Nigeria, where the Lassa virus (LASV) is most diverse. LASV diversity, coupled with host genetic and environmental factors, might cause differences in disease pathophysiology. Small-scale studies in Nigeria suggest that acute kidney injury is an important clinical feature and might be a determinant of survival. We aimed to establish the demographic, clinical, and laboratory factors associated with mortality in Nigerian patients with Lassa fever, and hypothesised that LASV was the direct cause of intrinsic renal damage for a subset of the patients with Lassa fever. METHODS: We did a retrospective, observational cohort study of consecutive patients in Nigeria with Lassa fever, who tested positive for LASV with RT-PCR, and were treated in Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital. We did univariate and multivariate statistical analyses, including logistic regression, of all demographic, clinical, and laboratory variables available at presentation to identify the factors associated with patient mortality. FINDINGS: Of 291 patients treated in Irrua Specialist Teaching Hospital between Jan 3, 2011, and Dec 11, 2015, 284 (98%) had known outcomes (died or survived) and seven (2%) were discharged against medical advice. Overall case-fatality rate was 24% (68 of 284 patients), with a 1·4 times increase in mortality risk for each 10 years of age (p=0·00017), reaching 39% (22 of 57) for patients older than 50 years. Of 284 patients, 81 (28%) had acute kidney injury and 104 (37%) had CNS manifestations and thus both were considered important complications of acute Lassa fever in Nigeria. Acute kidney injury was strongly associated with poor outcome (case-fatality rate of 60% [49 of 81 patients]; odds ratio [OR] 15, p<0·00001). Compared with patients without acute kidney injury, those with acute kidney injury had higher incidence of proteinuria (32 [82%] of 39 patients) and haematuria (29 [76%] of 38) and higher mean serum potassium (4·63 [SD 1·04] mmol/L) and lower blood urea nitrogen to creatinine ratio (8·6 for patients without clinical history of fluid loss), suggesting intrinsic renal damage. Normalisation of creatinine concentration was associated with recovery. Elevated serum creatinine (OR 1·3; p=0·046), aspartate aminotransferase (OR 1·5; p=0·075), and potassium (OR 3·6; p=0·0024) were independent predictors of death. INTERPRETATION: Our study presents detailed clinical and laboratory data for Nigerian patients with Lassa fever and provides strong evidence for intrinsic renal dysfunction in acute Lassa fever. Early recognition and treatment of acute kidney injury might significantly reduce mortality. FUNDING: German Research Foundation, German Center for Infection Research, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, US National Institutes of Health, and World Bank.

Transforming Clinical Data into Actionable Prognosis Models: Machine-Learning Framework and Field-Deployable App to Predict Outcome of Ebola Patients.

BACKGROUND: Assessment of the response to the 2014-15 Ebola outbreak indicates the need for innovations in data collection, sharing, and use to improve case detection and treatment. Here we introduce a Machine Learning pipeline for Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) prognosis prediction, which packages the best models into a mobile app to be available in clinical care settings. The pipeline was trained on a public EVD clinical dataset, from 106 patients in Sierra Leone. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a new tool for exploratory analysis, Mirador, to identify the most informative clinical factors that correlate with EVD outcome. The small sample size and high prevalence of missing records were significant challenges. We applied multiple imputation and bootstrap sampling to address missing data and quantify overfitting. We trained several predictors over all combinations of covariates, which resulted in an ensemble of predictors, with and without viral load information, with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.8 or more, after correcting for optimistic bias. We ranked the predictors by their F1-score, and those above a set threshold were compiled into a mobile app, Ebola CARE (Computational Assignment of Risk Estimates). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This method demonstrates how to address small sample sizes and missing data, while creating predictive models that can be readily deployed to assist treatment in future outbreaks of EVD and other infectious diseases. By generating an ensemble of predictors instead of relying on a single model, we are able to handle situations where patient data is partially available. The prognosis app can be updated as new data become available, and we made all the computational protocols fully documented and open-sourced to encourage timely data sharing, independent validation, and development of better prediction models in outbreak response.

Distinguishing protein-coding and noncoding genes in the human genome.

Although the Human Genome Project was completed 4 years ago, the catalog of human protein-coding genes remains a matter of controversy. Current catalogs list a total of approximately 24,500 putative protein-coding genes. It is broadly suspected that a large fraction of these entries are functionally meaningless ORFs present by chance in RNA transcripts, because they show no evidence of evolutionary conservation with mouse or dog. However, there is currently no scientific justification for excluding ORFs simply because they fail to show evolutionary conservation: the alternative hypothesis is that most of these ORFs are actually valid human genes that reflect gene innovation in the primate lineage or gene loss in the other lineages. Here, we reject this hypothesis by carefully analyzing the nonconserved ORFs-specifically, their properties in other primates. We show that the vast majority of these ORFs are random occurrences. The analysis yields, as a by-product, a major revision of the current human catalogs, cutting the number of protein-coding genes to approximately 20,500. Specifically, it suggests that nonconserved ORFs should be added to the human gene catalog only if there is clear evidence of an encoded protein. It also provides a principled methodology for evaluating future proposed additions to the human gene catalog. Finally, the results indicate that there has been relatively little true innovation in mammalian protein-coding genes.

Genome-wide detection and characterization of positive selection in human populations.

With the advent of dense maps of human genetic variation, it is now possible to detect positive natural selection across the human genome. Here we report an analysis of over 3 million polymorphisms from the International HapMap Project Phase 2 (HapMap2). We used 'long-range haplotype' methods, which were developed to identify alleles segregating in a population that have undergone recent selection, and we also developed new methods that are based on cross-population comparisons to discover alleles that have swept to near-fixation within a population. The analysis reveals more than 300 strong candidate regions. Focusing on the strongest 22 regions, we develop a heuristic for scrutinizing these regions to identify candidate targets of selection. In a complementary analysis, we identify 26 non-synonymous, coding, single nucleotide polymorphisms showing regional evidence of positive selection. Examination of these candidates highlights three cases in which two genes in a common biological process have apparently undergone positive selection in the same population:LARGE and DMD, both related to infection by the Lassa virus, in West Africa;SLC24A5 and SLC45A2, both involved in skin pigmentation, in Europe; and EDAR and EDA2R, both involved in development of hair follicles, in Asia.

A bivalent chromatin structure marks key developmental genes in embryonic stem cells.

The most highly conserved noncoding elements (HCNEs) in mammalian genomes cluster within regions enriched for genes encoding developmentally important transcription factors (TFs). This suggests that HCNE-rich regions may contain key regulatory controls involved in development. We explored this by examining histone methylation in mouse embryonic stem (ES) cells across 56 large HCNE-rich loci. We identified a specific modification pattern, termed "bivalent domains," consisting of large regions of H3 lysine 27 methylation harboring smaller regions of H3 lysine 4 methylation. Bivalent domains tend to coincide with TF genes expressed at low levels. We propose that bivalent domains silence developmental genes in ES cells while keeping them poised for activation. We also found striking correspondences between genome sequence and histone methylation in ES cells, which become notably weaker in differentiated cells. These results highlight the importance of DNA sequence in defining the initial epigenetic landscape and suggest a novel chromatin-based mechanism for maintaining pluripotency.

Searching for signals of evolutionary selection in 168 genes related to immune function.

Pathogens have played a substantial role in human evolution, with past infections shaping genetic variation at loci influencing immune function. We selected 168 genes known to be involved in the immune response, genotyped common single nucleotide polymorphisms across each gene in three population samples (CEPH Europeans from Utah, Han Chinese from Guangxi, and Yoruba Nigerians from Southwest Nigeria) and searched for evidence of selection based on four tests for non-neutral evolution: minor allele frequency (MAF), derived allele frequency (DAF), Fst versus heterozygosity and extended haplotype homozygosity (EHH). Six of the 168 genes show some evidence for non-neutral evolution in this initial screen, with two showing similar signals in independent data from the International HapMap Project. These analyses identify two loci involved in immune function that are candidates for having been subject to evolutionary selection, and highlight a number of analytical challenges in searching for selection in genome-wide polymorphism data.

The case for selection at CCR5-Delta32.

The C-C chemokine receptor 5, 32 base-pair deletion (CCR5-Delta32) allele confers strong resistance to infection by the AIDS virus HIV. Previous studies have suggested that CCR5-Delta32 arose within the past 1,000 y and rose to its present high frequency (5%-14%) in Europe as a result of strong positive selection, perhaps by such selective agents as the bubonic plague or smallpox during the Middle Ages. This hypothesis was based on several lines of evidence, including the absence of the allele outside of Europe and long-range linkage disequilibrium at the locus. We reevaluated this evidence with the benefit of much denser genetic maps and extensive control data. We find that the pattern of genetic variation at CCR5-Delta32 does not stand out as exceptional relative to other loci across the genome. Moreover using newer genetic maps, we estimated that the CCR5-Delta32 allele is likely to have arisen more than 5,000 y ago. While such results can not rule out the possibility that some selection may have occurred at C-C chemokine receptor 5 (CCR5), they imply that the pattern of genetic variation seen at CCR5-Delta32 is consistent with neutral evolution. More broadly, the results have general implications for the design of future studies to detect the signs of positive selection in the human genome.

Positive selection of a pre-expansion CAG repeat of the human SCA2 gene.

A region of approximately one megabase of human Chromosome 12 shows extensive linkage disequilibrium in Utah residents with ancestry from northern and western Europe. This strikingly large linkage disequilibrium block was analyzed with statistical and experimental methods to determine whether natural selection could be implicated in shaping the current genome structure. Extended Haplotype Homozygosity and Relative Extended Haplotype Homozygosity analyses on this region mapped a core region of the strongest conserved haplotype to the exon 1 of the Spinocerebellar ataxia type 2 gene (SCA2). Direct DNA sequencing of this region of the SCA2 gene revealed a significant association between a pre-expanded allele [(CAG)8CAA(CAG)4CAA(CAG)8] of CAG repeats within exon 1 and the selected haplotype of the SCA2 gene. A significantly negative Tajima's D value (-2.20, p < 0.01) on this site consistently suggested selection on the CAG repeat. This region was also investigated in the three other populations, none of which showed signs of selection. These results suggest that a recent positive selection of the pre-expansion SCA2 CAG repeat has occurred in Utah residents with European ancestry.

A novel approach for the construction of a Campylobacter mutant library.

Given the lack of functional transposons for use in Campylobacter spp., an alternative method of insertional mutagenesis using natural transformation was developed. High efficiencies of transformation were only obtained with species-specific DNA. This feature was a key element in the construction of mutant libraries of this bacterium. A chromosomal library of Campylobacter jejuni 81116 DNA was made in shuttle vector pUOA18. Next, a kanamycin-resistance (KmR) cassette was ligated into the inserts of the plasmids. C. jejuni 81116 was then transformed with the resulting products to allow homologous recombination between genomic fragments present in the shuttle vector and the chromosome. Transformants were pooled and chromosomal DNA from these transformants was used to retransform C. jejuni 81116. This resulted in transformants containing the KmR cassette in the chromosome but lacking the vector. In order to evaluate this approach for the construction of a mutant bank, the KmR insertional mutants were screened for loss of motility. Partial characterization of 11 non-motile mutants indicated that the inserted genes are involved in motility. Four mutants had the KmR cassette inserted in genes involved in flagella biosynthesis, namely flaA/B, neuB and flgK, and produced incomplete or no flagella. Four mutants had the KmR cassette inserted in genes possibly involved in flagella motor function: pflA, fliM and orf1 downstream of the fliN gene. Three mutants had the KmR cassette inserted in genes that are homologous to genes encoding hypothetical proteins of Helicobacter pylori.

The lipopolysaccharide biosynthesis locus of Campylobacter jejuni 81116.

Most Campylobacter jejuni strains express lipo-oligosaccharides. Some strains also express lipopolysaccharides (LPS), with O-antigen-like carbohydrate repeats. C. jejuni 81116 expresses an LPS containing both lipo-oligosaccharides and O-antigen-like repeats, but nothing is known about the structure or sugar composition of these LPS species. A cosmid library of the genome of C. jejuni 81116 was constructed and probed with Campylobacter hyoilei genes involved in LPS synthesis. Five cosmids hybridized with the probe and two of these expressed C. jejuni 81116 LPS in Escherichia coli. By subcloning, a 16 kb DNA region was identified which contains the genetic information required to express C. jejuni LPS. DNA sequence analysis revealed 11 ORFs homologous to genes involved in LPS synthesis of other bacteria. They consisted of three homologues of sugar biosynthesis genes, two homologues of transport genes and six homologues of sugar transferases.

Expression of Campylobacter hyoilei lipo-oligosaccharide (LOS) antigens in Escherichia coli.

Campylobacter spp. are well recognized as primary pathogens in animals and in people. To isolate and define the genetic regions encoding major surface antigens of Campylobacter hyoilei, genomic DNA of the type strain of the species, RMIT-32A, was cloned into a cosmid vector, pLA2917, in Escherichia coli and the resulting genomic library was screened using antiserum raised to the parent C. hyoilei strain. Six cosmid clones were found to express a series of immunoreactive bands in the 15-25 kDa range. These bands were proteinase K-resistant and were found in the LPS fraction of the cells, suggesting that the recombinant cosmids expressed C. hyoilei lipo-oligosaccharide (LOS) antigen(s). The minimum DNA insert size required for expression of C. hyoilei LOS antigen(s) in E. coli was 11.8 kb. This region was subcloned into the plasmid vector pBR322. The partial sequencing of the 11.8 kb region showed that it contains two ORFs, designated rfbF and rfbP, showing homology with the rfbF gene from Serratia marcescens and the rfbP gene from Salmonella typhimurium. Both genes are involved in LPS synthesis. The region also contained a sequence homologous to the rfaC gene of E. coli and Sal. typhimurium which is involved in core oligosaccharide synthesis.